The Fertility Decline in India: Why It's happening and What It Means
India sees a dramatic shift in its birth rate: new data from the National Family Health Survey 2019-21 (NFHS-5) suggests that India's fertility rate has dropped to historically low levels of 2.0 – below the replacement level of 2.1 births per woman!
So, what could contribute to this population trend, and how might it shape life within one of Earth's most populous countries?
It behooves us all to investigate further and explore potential implications for people worldwide.
The key points about fertility from the latest National Health Survey
First of all, let's start with the primary key points from the NFHS-5 that are relevant to this discussion:
The total fertility rate (TFR) has declined noticeably in India. Between 1992-93 and 2019-21, the TFR fell from 3.4 to 2.0 children. On average, 38% decrease in 28 years.
Women have fewer children as their education levels rise. The average number of children per woman without schooling is 2.8, while those with 12 or more years of education is 1.8.
Thirty-one states and union territories, including all the states in the south, west, and northern regions, have fertility below the replacement level of 2.1 children per woman.
The TFR ranges from 1.1 children per woman in Sikkim to 3.0 children per woman in Bihar.
There is 1.0 more child per woman in the lowest wealth quintile than in the highest wealth quintile - a TFR of 2.6 children versus 1.6 children. (figure 4.2)
In women aged 25-49 with no schooling or less than five years, the median age at first birth is less than 19.9 years; in women with 12 or more years of education, the median age is 24.9.
Female sterilization is still the most popular contraceptive method, used by 38 percent of married women.
11 percent of women aged 15-49 have experienced a stillbirth, miscarriage, or abortion in their lifetime
The infant mortality rate decreased by 56 percent over 28 years.
(Source: National Family Health Survey)
The declining fertility rates in India
With the global population rising to nearly 8 billion, fertility rates worldwide have fluctuated significantly over the past few decades.
India has the second largest population, 1.3 billion, only behind China, with 1.4 billion people.
The two countries together make up roughly one-third of the world's population.
However, according to the UN projections, India will overtake China as early as 2023 despite its fertility downtrend.
In recent years, India has seen a decline in birth rates, which can have a massive impact on a population of its size.
India's most recent National Family Health Survey, conducted every five years by the Health Ministry, was recently released and showed the total fertility rate (TFR) across India dropping to 2.0 in 2019-2021, compared with 2.2 in 2015-2016.
On average, women in rural areas have higher fertility than those in urban areas.
Families in cities are becoming smaller at a faster pace than in villages.
This drop in fertility catalyzed a rapid structural transition in terms of workforce and economic development.
It may also have far-reaching implications for Indian society, as it could lead to an aging population and a shortage of young people.
On the other hand, this downward trend is also seen as a positive way of promoting women's economic development and stability.
After all, less than three in ten females aged 15 and older are currently employed for wages or salary-based income.
To close that gap and empower more ladies to be financially independent, they need equal opportunities - such as education on necessary job skills - available to both genders.
(Source: National Family Health Survey)
Family planning history
Following independence in 1947, India committed itself to population control.
Soon after, it became the first country to launch a family planning program.
The ambitious goal was for India to reach zero population growth by the turn of the century - and this initiative has proven essential ever since.
In the 1970s, India's Prime Minister Indira Gandhi dramatically expanded the first national family planning program, offering cash incentives for both men and women to be sterilized.
Unfortunately, many men were sterilized without consent, resulting in a massive backlash.
Through federal support in the 1980s, state governments were encouraged to set up family planning programs focused on education and health for children and women.
At the same time, they were offering multiple methods of birth control.
The initiative gave couples more choices when deciding their desired family size - allowing them access to all necessary options to make an informed decision.
As a result of this effort, the growth rate of the population has more than halved since 1947.
Today, around 2.0 births are born per woman, down from 6 in the early 1950s to 3.4 in the 1990s.
One-child families in India
While the number of one-child families in India is still low compared to European standards of around 40% and the US with about 20%, smaller families are becoming more and more prevalent.
Currently, one-child families account for barely 5% of Indian families.
However, they form 13% of families living in metro cities.
Typically, these families belong to privileged sections of society, such as the urban elite, upper castes, and upper classes.
Couples with high education or income levels choose to stop at one child. And it's a growing trend.
Different from Europe and Asia, where changes in marriage and mean ages at first birth or the evolution of women's economic aspirations explain the low birth rate trending, in India, these changes do not explain the one-child family.
At its core, this shift seems driven by parents' increased investment in their single individual offspring, such as through education and financial resources.
Two prominent sociologists, Alaka Basu and Sonalde Desai have researched the motivations behind families in urban India having just one child.
Contrary to common conceptions that parents are making this decision purely out of economic reasons such as an increased desire for disposable income or preoccupation with work-related commitments, it turns out they're actually driven by aspirations of social mobility - wanting their child to succeed through better education opportunities.
The data shows that children from these single-child households were more likely to invest in after-school tuition and English medium private schools than those from larger ones.
Single-child parents invest more resources into their child than families with multiple kids might ordinarily do - particularly regarding education.
This finding suggests an interesting shift towards intensified parental investment in fewer children rather than spreading out resources across many, as was seen previously.
What implications could this trend have for India's future?
The decline in fertility rates across India could significantly affect the country's economic and social development.
With fewer people entering the workforce, there could be slower economic growth.
In addition, this trend could also lead to an aging population with fewer workers available to contribute to pensions and other social security systems.
Nevertheless, it does provide an exciting opportunity to address gender inequality in the labor force by enabling more women to take part in meaningful roles within India's economy.
The fertility rate decline across India will likely continue, making it essential for policymakers to anticipate its impacts and plan accordingly.
Therefore, to ensure that all members of society can reap these benefits, policymakers must understand the various factors behind this trend and take measures to improve access to contraception, family planning methods, and educational opportunities for everyone.
With a well-informed approach and adequate resources allocated towards ensuring gender equality and reproductive health services, India can look forward to a brighter future with fewer children but more opportunities for everyone.
